Pyrra Case Study: The U.S Election 2024: Volatility Ahead

On 05 November, unmoderated social media was buzzing with posts from users on the left and right expressing support for and against “Project 2025” - the blueprint created by Trump and his allies at the conservative think tank The Heritage Foundation to install an authoritarian-type regime if reelected. These reactions are almost certainly in response to The Washington Post’s article that was released on the same day¹ detailing an update on Project 2025.

●    This plan would see loyalists installed in key cabinet positions, direct the Department of Justice to prosecute critics, including President Biden, and invoke the Insurrection Act to quash any civil unrest on Inauguration Day, according to the Washington Post.

●    Project 2025 dovetails into another controversial Trump plan – dubbed “Agenda47”– that aims to overhaul the Department of Justice by removing “100 Soros District Attorneys”² and purging the diplomatic, military, and national security corps of "Deep State warmongers and globalists.”³

While Project 2025 is not new,⁴ this latest salvo hit its mark amongst unmoderated social users with dozens of conservatives and liberals posting a slew of negative and sometimes violent posts throughout the ecosystem including:

●    Since early November,posts about Project 2025 on unmoderated social have increased over 160 percent compared to those over the previous month. These posts peaked on 10 November, likely in response to members of the Trump family testifying in the New York criminal trial that day to determine if the former president and his company committed financial fraud.

This inflammatory rhetoric from users on both sides of the political aisle highlights a growing trend of individuals being influenced to violently act on dis/misinformation,conspiracy theories, or politically motivated ideologies often circulated on alt- and mainstream social media. We judge these escalating tensions and threats of violence will continue through the upcoming presidential election due in part, to the incendiary language from online users and political candidates.

Indeed, since 2020, there have been 749 events in the U.S. categorized as political violence. Of these, 39 percent included fatalities, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project.⁵

●    The most recent of such cases involved Robert Card, the gunman responsible for killing 18 individuals in October’s mass shooting in Lewiston, Maine, who, according to law enforcement, was believed to have been influenced by conspiracy theories such as; the Democrats' involvement in rigging the 2020 election and a crackdown on firearms.⁶

●    If true, this tragic episode follows a recent trend identified by the United States Secret Service that showed a quarter of mass shootings between 2016 and 2020 in the U.S. were inspired by conspiracy theories and hateful rhetoric. You can read our recent report on the role of unmoderated social media in the Lewiston mass shooting here.

And this trend isn’t just growing amongst the far-right.⁷ Those on the left have also been known to commit acts of violence based on their political ‘beliefs’.

●    On 17 June, 2017 liberal political activist James Thomas Hodgkinson was responsible for a mass shooting targeting Republican lawmakers who were practicing for a charity baseball game in northern Virginia.⁸ A vehement critic of former President Trump, Hodgkinson’s mainstream social media posts contained hateful rhetoric like, "Trump is a traitor. Trump Has Destroyed Our Democracy. It's Time to Destroy Trump & Co."⁹

This attack, like many others, is now fuel for disinformation that continues to undermine U.S. democratic institutions, stoke anger, and encourage violence from both sides of the political aisle.

We continue to see acceptance and (more concerningly) implementation of legislation based on dis/misinformation and conspiracy theories surrounding the supposed lack of integrity of the electoral infrastructure within the U.S. What is more concerning is that these very same narratives are currently being used for personal or political gain among certain corners of American politics,while destroying the foundations of democracy they claim to be protecting.

Against this backdrop, we view Trump’s continued promotion of the Project 2025 platform combined with his ongoing public threats on Truth Social against opponents¹⁰ as highly dangerous going into the 2024 election year.

The unmoderated social ecosystem creates the perfect storm of disinformation, incitement to violence and justification for authoritarian action - strong undercurrents will provide early warning signals ahead of protests, riots, and violence in the lead up to, and following the 2024 presidential elections.

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Pyrra aims to make the internet and the world a safer place by identifying and combating violent threats, hate speech disinformation and extremism within the unmoderated corners of the internet. Should your team need support in monitoring or identifying threats or trends on election fraud or other venues, please contact us at sales@pyrratech.com.