Case Study: Alt-Social’s role in influencing narratives around U.S. election validity

Alternative social media (alt-social) played a major role in the spread of disinformation and incitement to attack the Capitol following the 2020 Presidential election. Since then, the alt-social ecosystem has significantly grown, and conspiracy theories and dis/misinformation about U.S. election fraud have become one of the most enduring narratives amongst users.

Since 2020 the same basic narrative that incited the violence immediately following the Presidential election – that the electoral process is flawed and was manipulated to favor Democrats – has continued to flourish, working to undermine the validity of the Biden Administration amongst some Americans, and to sow mistrust of the electoral process – particularly during the recent midterm elections. This ongoing distrust in the U.S. electoral process was reflected in recent polling, which suggests that around 30 percent of Americans still believe that President Biden was elected illegally.¹

One year out from the 2024 Presidential Elections there has been a noticeable increase in users questioning election validity across alt-social, and we judge that as campaigns ramp up, so too will the proliferation of conspiracy theories and the targeting of election officials, institutions, and the electoral process.

One of the most worrying trends is how these narratives are directly influencing electoral policy and legislation across the U.S. Since 2022, 28 states have passed partisan-motivated bills allowing for the review of certified elections and threatening election officials with felony charges for involvement in alleged voting crimes.² Moreover, our review of alt-social illustrates that current and former Republican politicians have directed their ire towards the non-partisan election integrity collective Electronic Registration Information Center (ERIC)³ because of alleged election interference that favors Democrats.

• ERIC became a target of far-right Republican legislators after a conspiratorial news outlet published a piece in late January 2022 claiming it was, "a left-wing voter registration drive disguised as voter roll clean up." ⁴ The article also alleged ERIC was funded by philanthropist George Soros -- a frequent political punching bag of far-right conspiracists and personalities. This narrative has been propagated and altered on several alt-social outlets over the past six months, highlighting the ease and speed misinformation can spread across mediums.

• In May users reposted news of several Republican-led states departure from ERIC,^{5, 6} which then morphed into posts about the organization being funded by Soros and other well-known personalities, illegally providing personal information, and finding ineligible voters to vote in upcoming elections.^{7, 8} Then, in September, users alleged that ERIC was a "shell" organization after a Republican lawmaker claimed to have made an unannounced visit to the address for its headquarters but found no facility at the location,⁹ furthering the false narrative of ERIC’s true mission.
• Shortly after the publication's release, Louisiana became the first of several Republican-led states to publicly announced their split from ERIC, citing concerns over voters’ privacy and questionable funding,¹⁰ a nod towards legitimizing the false claim that Soros funds ERIC.
• Alabama followed suit in January 2023, echoing similar concerns as to their departure.¹¹
• In early March, former President Trump continued to push this narrative on his alt-social platform, Truth Social, demanding Republican governors withdraw from ERIC because it, "pumps the [voter] rolls for the Democrats."¹² Shortly thereafter, and almost certainly because of the former President's post, several Republican-led states -- Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Ohio, and West Virginia -- announced their departure.
• Virginia and Texas, also Republican-governed states, announced in May and July 2023, respectively, they would also no longer participate in ERIC.¹³

Over the past six months conspiracy theories on electoral fraud were most prevalent on platforms like Telegram¹⁴, BitChute¹⁵, Disqus¹⁶, and Truth Social¹⁷ These outlets advertise themselves as platforms where users can express themselves freely,^{18, 19, 20, 21} with the former two stating users are free of reprisals from authorities, underscoring the ease in which users can spread conspiracy theories, hateful rhetoric, and disinformation with little to no impunity.

• Users on Telegram have promoted articles from far-right media outlets alleging crimes committed by Virginia Democratic personnel or candidates, suggesting this would be representative of a Democratic-led state government.

• BitChute was prominent in disseminating a conspiracy theory that the Executive and Judicial Branches were collaborating with several US government agencies targeting the Republican Party nationally, furthering the narrative that a “deep state” government is plotting against Republicans.

• Disqus users have pushed narratives that allege Texas and other states allow several thousands of illegal ballots to be cast during the recent state and national elections, underscoring the conspiracy theory that led to President Biden’s “illegal” election.
• Truth Social users regularly promote conspirancy theories that allege illegal aliens are “imported” and  used  in  elections  to  benefit  Democratic  candidates.  Because  of  this,  several  users  have recently  advocated  for  former  President  Trump  to  call  for  “trained”  poll  watchers  to  combat voter fraud in the upcoming 2024 election.

These are highly concerning trends, especially ahead of the 2024 Presidential elections. We witnessed firsthand the very real-world implications of electoral fraud conspiracy theories four years ago, and the prevalence / acceptance of these narratives is only gaining traction. Of even greater concern is how these conspiracies are taking root amongst the political elite, who are using these narratives to win public favor while degrading the transparency, checks and balances of the very system they are meant to uphold.